Final Budget Outcome masks structural tax problems

• Budget beats pre-election projections
• Government is overly reliant on personal income tax and corporate tax
• Fiscal challenges must remain in government’s sights

Today’s Final Budget Outcome 2024-25 shows Australia’s fiscal position has improved compared with earlier forecasts. However, Australia’s largest accounting body, CPA Australia, remains concerned over the nation’s over-reliance on a shrinking pool of taxpayers and persistent expected deficits over the next decade.

The figures show that the $10 billion underlying cash deficit is less than half the $29.7 billion deficit forecast in the 2025 Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, with income tax receipts $13 billion higher than projected.

Gavan Ord, CPA Australia’s Business and Investment Lead, said the 2024-25 figures also showed government payments were $4.9 billion lower than forecast.

“CPA Australia notes the better-than-expected improvement to Australia’s fiscal position. However, these results show the government remains overly reliant on company and personal income taxes,” Mr Ord said.

“The proportion of Australians paying income taxes is declining as the population ages – they will shoulder an increasingly heavy burden unless the tax base changes.

“Although the final financial results for 2024-25 exceeded projections, Australia continues to face substantial budgetary pressures, with deficits projected to persist over the next decade. Strengthening our fiscal position remains an urgent priority.

“We encourage the Albanese government to retain its focus on reducing expenditure, improving productivity and removing unnecessary regulation. 

“Addressing these issues will help improve Australia’s global competitiveness and ensure we are a destination for global capital and investments, while also shielding the economy and government finances from potential geopolitical shockwaves. 

“Today’s figures again demonstrate that Australia needs a holistic review and reform of the tax system to ensure it can deliver for Australia’s future.”

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Campbell Fuller, Head of External Affairs
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