We ain't seen nothing yet
Radical rethinking on Asia has some way to go yet, writes Derek Parker.
Asia Future Shock: Business Crisis and Opportunity in the Coming Years
By Michael Backman
Palgrave, $49.95
For those who can remember when Asian countries were either communist enclaves or exotic tourist destinations, the past two decades have required radical rethinking, but, according to Backman, we ain't seen nothing yet. He sees the socioeconomic epicentre of the world continuing to move towards Asia led by the giants of China and India, but with a number of other players taking key supporting roles.
Backman obviously loves future-leaning factoids, and puts at least one on every page. For example: within 10 years, funds under management in China will grow to at least US$1.5 trillion; Indonesia will soon be expelled from OPEC; and the population of Singapore is likely to shrink to dangerous levels.
Some of Backman's sources, when chased down, are not as authoritative as they might be, newspaper articles feature prominently, and he often seems inclined to ignore evidence that might blur his big pictures (is the reunification of the two Koreas really 'inevitable'?).
This leaves a rather superficial impression, especially as most of the essays in the book are only four or five pages. But he raises plenty of interesting points, especially in the summary at the end of each section in which he highlights key business issues.
He notes, for example, the low quality of management education across Asia. There are some excellent business schools, but very few of them. He also notes looming shortages of energy and clean water. He points out that China and India still have huge numbers of people in dire poverty, meaning that the long-term political stability of those countries is uncertain. Most Asian governments are likely to become more authoritarian, even while growing middle classes demand more freedom.
Western countries can expect a wave of cashed-up Asian tourists, especially from mainland China, and Asian firms will increasingly be on the prowl for multinational acquisitions. The prominence of Japan, however, is likely to fall back, especially as its population settles into retirement age. In fact, Backman's discussions of Asia's changing demography are some of the most interesting aspects of the book, and deserve greater depth.
Asia Future Shock is useful reading for business scenario builders and long-term market analysts. Its limitations should be understood, it is a place to start, not a place to finish. But within that framework it might make the region's future a bit less of a shock.
The Battle for Bennelong
By Margot Saville
Melbourne University Press, $24.95
This is one of the more interesting sub-stories from the 2007 election, relating how John Howard lost his seat to newcomer Maxine McKew. Saville makes no secret of her friendship with McKew, and large parts of the book read like a campaign diary.
She concludes that the battle was a David-and-Goliath story, but from her own telling this is by no means clear.
McKew, after all, had some key advantages: name recognition, a husband from the upper echelons of the ALP, and the freedom to campaign on a full-time basis for months before the election was called.
The real trump card, however, was that the seat had changed radically since Howard first won it in 1974, from redistributions and demographic shifts. In fact, the surprise is not that Howard lost it but that he had held it for so long.
The book would have been improved had Saville provided more analysis and less adulation; there is a feeling of the whole project having been rushed. Nevertheless, it is a refreshing reminder that Australian democracy is built firmly on a base of local representation, community events, and look-me-in-the-eye handshakes.
Global Risk: Business Success in Turbulent Times
By Sean Cleary and Thierry Malleret
Palgrave, $49.95
In a globalised economy, risk management has become a necessity, but that hasn't made it any easier.
Cleary and Malleret, with a wealth of academic and consulting experience between them, provide an excellent overview of the current issues, but the most interesting aspect of the book is the four case studies they examine: large-scale jihadist attacks, collapse of a major hedge fund, pandemics and radical climate change.
They provide some useful answers, ranging from decentralisation of crucial business functions to specialist insurance bonds. But they underline the point that the best protective measures are careful planning and an awareness of one's own vulnerabilities.
Reference: March 2008, volume 78:02, p. 77
